Can You Judge a Sportsbook by its Free Picks?
You’re looking for a good handicapping service and you decide to go with one based on the success rate of their free NFL picks. Just about every handicapping service offers free NFL picks. And more times than not those free picks are usually right on target. The reason for offering free picks is obvious—it’s a way for bettors to sample a service’s product and it can help the handicapper gain the confidence of potential clients.
The fact is that pick services that offer free picks do so on games that are usually no-brainers. That almost ensures that the free NFL picks will be on target. That means you need other criteria that you can use to help you decide which handicapping service to hire. Here are a few guidelines you can utilize in that process.
What types of claims is the picks service making? Do they say they have a 70, 75 or 80% success rate? Any handicapper that claims they are able to consistently pick winners 70% of the time isn’t telling the truth. True, their free NFL picks may have a 70% or higher success rate, but those are games that are easy to handicap. The top pro handicappers are correct an average of about 63% of the time. Look for services that put gambling in perspective and that believe in staying in the game for the long run. The fact is there are times that a service will chose winners at a rate of 70 to 85%. But there are other weeks that they will hit only 40% of their choices. The average pick rate should be about 63%.
What is the service’s track record when it comes to making picks. They should be able to verify their claims, offering evidence from past seasons. Additionally, look for NFL picks services that have been in existence for at least five years. An ability to survive a half-decade or more in this cut throat business says that they have developed a loyal clientele.
What type of guarantee do they offer? A money back pledge is not reasonable nor is a 70% success rate. If a picks site isn’t giving you any type of guarantee that’s not a good sign either. Often you’ll hear something like they guarantee their “free NFL picks.” That’s usually an easy guarantee to make since only two games are usually offered for free. A reasonable guarantee from a handicapper would be offering another round, month or season of picks (whatever you purchase) for free if their information does not yield you a profit.
Does the handicapping service offer cost-cutting packages that encourage you to wager for an entire season? If they do, that’s good for two reasons. First, season packages are cheaper than buying individual or weekly picks. Second, a handicapper that wants to work with you for the long run beyond the free NFL picks must really believe in their ability to turn a profit for their clients. Professional bettors make money because they are betting throughout the entire season.
Who are the experts they use for their picks? Do they engage specialists for NFL, MLB, NBA and other picks? The fact is that no one can be an expert on every sport. A handicapping service should have various specialists on board.
Free NFL picks are one way, a minor way, by which you are able to judge the efficacy of a handicapping service. Be sure to do your research and if you do sign on with a pick service, you should understand that doesn’t mean that you can simply stop monitoring the day-to-day happenings in the league. The fact is a pick service is just one of many tools that you should use to make your wagers and become a winner.